financial-analysis-earnings-preview

Earnings Preview

Build a pre-earnings preview with consensus estimates, historical trend, scenarios, and catalyst checklist. Uses SEC EDGAR for historical financials and web search for consensus/dates.

Setup

No dependencies required. All scripts use Python standard library only.

Workflow

Step 1 — Find earnings date and consensus (web search)

Always search first. Do NOT rely on training data for consensus estimates.

Search A — earnings date:

• [Company] [ticker] earnings date Q[X] FY[YYYY]
• [Ticker] earnings release date when

Search B — consensus estimates (run in parallel with Step 2):

• [Company] Q[X] FY[YYYY] earnings preview consensus estimate revenue EPS
• [Ticker] earnings estimates Wall Street expectations Q[X] FY[YYYY]

If Search B returns only vague language without absolute dollar figures, run:

• [Ticker] Q[X] FY[YYYY] revenue estimate $B analyst consensus

Extract ALL before proceeding:

Field	Notes
Earnings date	Exact date; "date not confirmed" if unavailable
Quarter being reported (e.g. Q2 FY2026)	Explicit fiscal quarter — not "next quarter"
Revenue consensus estimate	Must be absolute dollar value (e.g. "$29.3B")
Adj. EPS consensus estimate	Must be a dollar figure (e.g. "$2.18")
Prior guidance range	Company's guidance for this period
Key analyst themes	2-3 expectations or concerns

Verify the earnings date is in the future. If it has passed, that quarter is already reported — search for the next upcoming date instead.

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Step 2 — Pull historical trend (scripts)

Run in parallel with Search B:

bash run.sh <SYMBOL> --form 10-Q --periods 8
bash run.sh <SYMBOL> --form 10-K --periods 3

10-Q data is YTD cumulative. Derive standalone quarters by subtraction:

• Q1 = Q1 YTD
• Q2 = H1 YTD − Q1 YTD
• Q3 = 9M YTD − H1 YTD
• Q4 = Full-year (10-K) − 9M YTD

Present as mandatory trend table (minimum 4 quarters + estimate row):

Quarter	Revenue	YoY	Gross Margin	Op. Margin	Diluted EPS
Q[X-3] FY[YYYY] A	$X.XB	+X%	XX.X%	XX.X%	$X.XX
Q[X] FY[YYYY] E	$X.XB(E)	+X%E	—	—	$X.XX(E)

The last row "Q[X] FY[YYYY] E" is consensus from Step 1 — mark as "(E)" for estimate.

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Step 3 — Build scenarios

	Bull	Base	Bear
Revenue	Beat consensus by ~X%	In-line	Miss by ~X%
Adj. EPS	Beat	In-line	Miss
Gross margin	Expansion vs prior year	Flat	Compression
Key driver	Upside in [segment]	Steady execution	Weakness in [risk]

Anchor to history: Use the company's historical beat/miss magnitude from the trend table to size the bull and bear scenarios. For example, if the company has beaten revenue consensus by ~10% in recent quarters (e.g. NVDA), use ~8-12% for bull — not a generic 2-4%. For mature companies with consistent ~1% beats, use ~1-3%. State the primary trigger for each scenario.

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Step 4 — Catalyst checklist

List 3-5 watchpoints:

[ ] Key question (e.g. "Does [segment] revenue accelerate above X%?")
    Why it matters: [1-2 sentences]
    What to look for: [specific metric or commentary]

Focus on: key segment variance, margin trajectory, forward guidance, prior quarter risks.

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Output Format

Header box (mandatory, always first):

[COMPANY] ([TICKER]) — Q[X] FY[YYYY] EARNINGS PREVIEW
Earnings date: [exact date or "TBC"]

Consensus:   Revenue $X.XB (+X% YoY)  |  Adj. EPS $X.XX (+X% YoY)
Prior guidance: [range or "not provided"]
Source: [source name, retrieved YYYY-MM-DD]

Section 1 — Trend table (mandatory, min 4 quarters + estimate row)

Section 2 — Trend commentary (3-5 sentences)

Section 3 — What the Street expects

Section 4 — Scenarios (Bull / Base / Bear table)

Section 5 — Catalyst checklist (3-5 watchpoints)

Closing caveat:

Earnings previews are based on consensus estimates from public sources and historical reported data. Actual results may differ materially. This is not investment advice.

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Formatting Rules

• Revenue / profit: B or M, e.g. "$29.3B"
• Margins: one decimal percent, e.g. "48.2%"
• EPS: two decimals, e.g. "$2.18"
• Growth rates: one decimal, e.g. "+12.4% YoY"

Limitations

• No real-time consensus: estimates from web search — always note source and date
• SEC EDGAR lag: filed data may not include most recent quarter
• 10-Q is cumulative YTD: always subtract prior periods for standalone quarters
• US stocks only: SEC EDGAR covers US-listed equities only