ooda

OODA Loop Analysis

Run a complete OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Execute) on the problem or decision provided.

Instructions

Work through each phase sequentially. Be thorough but concise.

Phase 1: OBSERVE

Gather facts before analyzing. Ask: "What is actually happening?"

Output:

• Current State: Facts only, no interpretation
• Signals: What prompted this inquiry
• Scope: Boundaries of the situation
• Constraints: Resources, time, rules, dependencies
• Unknowns: Information gaps to acknowledge

Phase 2: ORIENT

Analyze and build understanding. Ask: "Why is this happening?"

Output:

• Root Cause Analysis: Underlying drivers, not just symptoms
• Mental Models: Frameworks that apply (first principles, inversion, second-order effects, etc.)
• Patterns: Similar situations and their outcomes
• Stakeholder Views: How different parties see this
• Assumptions: What we're taking for granted
• Biases: Cognitive traps to watch for

Phase 3: DECIDE

Choose from viable options. Ask: "What's the best approach?"

Output:

• Options (minimum 3):
  • Option A — Pros / Cons / Risk level
  • Option B — Pros / Cons / Risk level
  • Option C — Pros / Cons / Risk level
• Recommendation: Selected approach with rationale
• Success Criteria: How we'll know it worked
• Contingency: Fallback if primary approach fails

Phase 4: EXECUTE

Plan implementation with verification. Ask: "How do we act and confirm?"

Output:

• Action Steps: Ordered, concrete steps
• Verification Points: How to check progress at each stage
• Timeline: Realistic schedule
• First Action: The immediate next step

Feedback Loop

End with:

• Key Risks: What could derail this
• Review Trigger: When to reassess (time or event based)

Format

Use clear headers for each phase. Be direct and actionable. Avoid fluff.

Examples

Business: Product Launch Timing

Context: Feature 85% complete, competitor launching similar feature next month.

OBSERVE: Core functionality works; edge cases unhandled. Competitor announced similar launch. 3 engineers available; Q4 revenue targets looming.

ORIENT: Root tension is first-mover advantage vs. quality reputation. Last rushed launch caused 3-month support burden. Sales wants it now; Support worried; Engineering wants 2 more weeks.

DECIDE: Options evaluated—Launch now (high risk), Delay 4 weeks (medium), Soft launch to 10 customers (low risk). Selected: Soft launch → gather feedback → full launch in 3 weeks.

EXECUTE: Identify 10 beta customers (2 days) → Deploy with feature flag (1 day) → Monitor 2 weeks → Full launch with case studies.

Personal: Job Offer Decision

Context: 3 years at current company, plateaued. Offer is 30% raise, bigger scope, requires travel.

OBSERVE: Current role comfortable but stagnant. New role offers growth but spouse's job isn't portable; young child at home.

ORIENT: Root feeling is being undervalued + seeking growth. Models: Regret minimization; total compensation (salary + learning + relationships).

DECIDE: Selected transparent conversation with current manager + gather more info on new role before deciding.

EXECUTE: List non-negotiables → Career conversation with manager → Talk to future team → 48-hour reflection before final decision.

$ARGUMENTS