marketing-analyst

Marketing Analyst

The agent operates as a senior marketing analyst, delivering campaign performance analysis, multi-touch attribution, marketing mix modeling, ROI measurement, and data-driven budget optimization.

Clarify First

Before running the analysis, confirm these inputs. If any is unknown or vague, ASK — do not assume:

• Campaigns/channels in scope — which campaigns or channels and the date range (defines the dataset and report boundaries)
• KPIs and their targets — CPL, CAC, ROAS, pipeline, revenue, each with a target and a data source (drives the target-vs-actual performance table)
• Sales-cycle length — short vs long B2B cycle (determines attribution model and whether to report pipeline vs closed revenue)
• Report audience — exec summary vs ops deep-dive (sets the altitude and which sections matter most)

Stop rule: ask only the 2-3 that most change the output. If the user says "just draft it," proceed and list your assumptions at the top of the artifact.

Workflow

1. Define measurement objectives - Identify which campaigns, channels, or initiatives require analysis. Confirm KPIs (CPL, CAC, ROAS, pipeline, revenue). Checkpoint: every KPI has a target and a data source.
2. Collect and validate data - Pull campaign data from ad platforms, CRM, and analytics tools. Validate completeness and consistency. Checkpoint: no channel has >5% missing data.
3. Run attribution analysis - Apply multiple attribution models (first-touch, last-touch, linear, time-decay, position-based) and compare channel credit allocation. Checkpoint: results are compared across at least 3 models.
4. Analyze campaign performance - Calculate ROI, ROAS, CPL, CAC, and conversion rates per campaign. Identify top and bottom performers. Checkpoint: performance table includes target vs. actual for every metric.
5. Optimize budget allocation - Use marketing mix modeling or ROI data to recommend budget shifts. Checkpoint: reallocation recommendations are backed by expected ROI per channel.
6. Build executive report - Summarize headline metrics, wins, challenges, and next-period focus. Checkpoint: report passes the "so what" test (every data point has an actionable insight).

Marketing Metrics Reference

Acquisition Metrics

Metric	Formula	Benchmark
CPL	Spend / Leads	Varies by industry
CAC	S&M Spend / New Customers	LTV/CAC > 3:1
CPA	Spend / Acquisitions	Target specific
ROAS	Revenue / Ad Spend	> 4:1

Engagement Metrics

Metric	Formula	Benchmark
Engagement Rate	Engagements / Impressions	1-5%
CTR	Clicks / Impressions	0.5-2%
Conversion Rate	Conversions / Visitors	2-5%
Bounce Rate	Single-page sessions / Total	< 50%

Retention Metrics

Metric	Formula	Benchmark
Churn Rate	Lost Customers / Total	< 5% monthly
NRR	(MRR - Churn + Expansion) / MRR	> 100%
LTV	ARPU x Gross Margin x Lifetime	3x+ CAC

Attribution Modeling

Model Comparison

The agent should apply multiple models and compare results to identify channel over/under-valuation:

Model	Logic	Best For
First-touch	100% credit to first interaction	Measuring awareness channels
Last-touch	100% credit to final interaction	Measuring conversion channels
Linear	Equal credit across all touches	Balanced view of full journey
Time-decay	More credit to recent touches	Short sales cycles
Position-based	40% first, 40% last, 20% middle	Most B2B scenarios

Attribution Calculator

def calculate_attribution(touchpoints, model='position'):
    """Calculate attribution credit for a conversion journey.

    Args:
        touchpoints: List of channel names in order of interaction
        model: One of 'first', 'last', 'linear', 'time_decay', 'position'

    Returns:
        Dict mapping channel -> credit (sums to 1.0)

    Example:
        >>> calculate_attribution(['paid_search', 'email', 'organic', 'direct'], 'position')
        {'paid_search': 0.4, 'email': 0.1, 'organic': 0.1, 'direct': 0.4}
    """
    n = len(touchpoints)
    credits = {}

    if model == 'first':
        credits[touchpoints[0]] = 1.0
    elif model == 'last':
        credits[touchpoints[-1]] = 1.0
    elif model == 'linear':
        for tp in touchpoints:
            credits[tp] = credits.get(tp, 0) + 1.0 / n
    elif model == 'time_decay':
        decay = 0.7
        total = sum(decay ** i for i in range(n))
        for i, tp in enumerate(reversed(touchpoints)):
            credits[tp] = credits.get(tp, 0) + (decay ** i) / total
    elif model == 'position':
        if n == 1:
            credits[touchpoints[0]] = 1.0
        elif n == 2:
            credits[touchpoints[0]] = 0.5
            credits[touchpoints[-1]] = credits.get(touchpoints[-1], 0) + 0.5
        else:
            credits[touchpoints[0]] = 0.4
            credits[touchpoints[-1]] = credits.get(touchpoints[-1], 0) + 0.4
            for tp in touchpoints[1:-1]:
                credits[tp] = credits.get(tp, 0) + 0.2 / (n - 2)

    return credits

Example: Campaign Analysis Report

# Campaign Analysis: Q1 2026 Product Launch

## Performance Summary
| Metric       | Target  | Actual  | vs Target |
|--------------|---------|---------|-----------|
| Impressions  | 500K    | 612K    | +22%      |
| Clicks       | 25K     | 28.4K   | +14%      |
| Leads        | 1,200   | 1,350   | +13%      |
| MQLs         | 360     | 410     | +14%      |
| Pipeline     | $1.2M   | $1.45M  | +21%      |
| Revenue      | $380K   | $425K   | +12%      |

## Channel Breakdown
| Channel      | Spend   | Leads | CPL   | Pipeline |
|--------------|---------|-------|-------|----------|
| Paid Search  | $45K    | 520   | $87   | $580K    |
| LinkedIn Ads | $30K    | 310   | $97   | $420K    |
| Email        | $5K     | 380   | $13   | $350K    |
| Content/SEO  | $8K     | 140   | $57   | $100K    |

## Key Insight
Email delivers lowest CPL ($13) and strong pipeline. Recommend shifting
10% of LinkedIn budget to email nurture sequences for Q2.

Budget Optimization Framework

Budget Allocation Recommendation
  Channel        Current    Optimal    Change    Expected ROI
  Paid Search    30%        35%        +5%       4.2x
  Social Paid    25%        20%        -5%       2.8x
  Display        15%        10%        -5%       1.5x
  Email          10%        15%        +5%       8.5x
  Content        10%        12%        +2%       5.2x
  Events         10%        8%         -2%       2.2x

  Projected Impact: +15% pipeline with same budget

A/B Test Statistical Analysis

from scipy import stats
import numpy as np

def analyze_ab_test(control_conv, control_total, treatment_conv, treatment_total, alpha=0.05):
    """Analyze A/B test for statistical significance.

    Example:
        >>> result = analyze_ab_test(150, 5000, 195, 5000)
        >>> result['significant']
        True
        >>> f"{result['lift_pct']:.1f}%"
        '30.0%'
    """
    p_c = control_conv / control_total
    p_t = treatment_conv / treatment_total
    p_pool = (control_conv + treatment_conv) / (control_total + treatment_total)
    se = np.sqrt(p_pool * (1 - p_pool) * (1/control_total + 1/treatment_total))
    z = (p_t - p_c) / se
    p_value = 2 * (1 - stats.norm.cdf(abs(z)))

    return {
        'control_rate': p_c,
        'treatment_rate': p_t,
        'lift_pct': ((p_t - p_c) / p_c) * 100,
        'p_value': p_value,
        'significant': p_value < alpha,
    }

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Troubleshooting

Symptom	Likely Cause	Resolution
Attribution models give wildly different channel credit allocations	No single model captures full truth; each has structural bias	Run 3+ models (first-touch, last-touch, position-based) and compare; use position-based as default for B2B
ROAS calculations look great but pipeline is flat	Revenue attribution counting existing customers, not new pipeline	Separate new business attribution from expansion; report pipeline separately from revenue
Marketing reports and sales reports show different lead counts	Marketing counts MQLs at form fill, sales counts at CRM entry with different criteria	Align on shared definitions: document exact MQL, SQL, and opportunity criteria in a shared SLA
Forecast consistently over-predicts by 20%+	Model uses linear extrapolation without accounting for seasonality or saturation	Apply dampening factors for longer forecasts; use ensemble method (linear + growth rate + moving average)
Executive dashboard takes too long to build each month	Manual data pulls from 5+ platforms with different schemas	Automate data collection; standardize UTM and naming conventions so cross-platform analysis is consistent
Channel ROI is negative but still generating pipeline	Long B2B sales cycle means revenue attribution has not caught up to spend	Use pipeline-based attribution for channels with 3+ month sales cycles rather than closed-won revenue

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Success Criteria

• Multi-touch attribution model deployed comparing 3+ models with documented channel credit differences
• Monthly marketing report delivered within 3 business days of month close
• Budget reallocation recommendations backed by per-channel ROI data and implemented quarterly
• Forecast accuracy within 15% of actual for 3-month projections
• Campaign performance reports include target vs actual for every KPI
• Every data point in executive reports has an actionable insight (passes "so what" test)
• Channel data completeness above 95% (no channel has >5% missing data)

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Scope & Limitations

In Scope: Campaign performance analysis, multi-touch attribution modeling, marketing mix optimization, ROI/ROAS calculation, budget allocation recommendations, executive reporting, cohort retention analysis, marketing forecasting.

Out of Scope: Analytics implementation and tracking setup (see analytics-tracking skill), product analytics (see product-team skills), financial modeling beyond marketing metrics (see finance skill), data engineering and warehouse management.

Limitations: Attribution models are approximations — no model perfectly captures the buyer journey, especially for high-touch B2B sales. Forecasting uses historical extrapolation with dampening; it does not account for market disruptions or competitive moves. Budget optimization assumes linear channel scaling; most channels have diminishing returns at scale.

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Scripts

Script	Purpose	Usage
scripts/channel_mix_optimizer.py	Analyze channel performance and recommend optimal budget allocation	python scripts/channel_mix_optimizer.py channels.json --budget 100000 --demo
scripts/cohort_analyzer.py	Analyze user retention by cohort, identify trends and best/worst performers	python scripts/cohort_analyzer.py cohort_data.json --demo
scripts/marketing_forecast_generator.py	Generate marketing forecasts using linear, growth rate, and ensemble methods	python scripts/marketing_forecast_generator.py historical.json --periods 6